PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: The 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus Opinion PieceYou’re Reading is Probably Wrong …

Fred Chong Rutherford
6 min readFeb 6, 2020
Caucuses are stupid. From

Every year, I see the same kinds of proclamations of what a ‘win’ at the Iowa Caucus means, and they’re always wrong. Like, I’ve seen this since 1980, as a kid.

The Iowa Democratic Caucus results have produced exactly 1 President, Barrack Obama in 2008. The caucus predicted the Democratic Nominee for President correctly in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016.

But it only predicted the President correctly once in all that time. Let’s skip how badly Iowa choose in 1980, 1984 and 1988; in each of those years the Democratic nominee for President was thumped by the Republicans.

In 1992, Tom Steyer won over 77% of the headcount. Many said Clinton should drop out, but he persisted. He won. In 1996, Clinton was subjected to a primary by members of his own party, the same as Obama in 2012, because Baby Boomer age Democrats sometime act like lunatics.

In 2000, the next Iowa Caucus had Al Gore and Bill Bradley in stiff competiton, with Gore getting 62.34% of the headcount and Bradley gaining 34.88%. Gore won the popular vote and became President, because what kind of country would ignore a popular vote total?

In 2004 John Kerry and John Edwards split the headcount with 37.6% and 31.8% of the totals, with Howard “SCREAM” Dean and Dick “My Name Sounds Dirty” Gephardt grabbing the rest with 18.0% and 10.6% of the headcount. John Kerry then lost to human lawn ornament George W. Bush.

In 2008 at the Iowa Caucus, political failure Barrack Obama picked up a measley 37.6% of the popular vote and 16 delegates, with John “Sex Scandal” Edwards getting 29.7% of the headcount (and 14 delegates), and some Senator named Hillary someone who got 15 delegates and 29.4% of the headcount.

As mentioned, Baby Boomer aged Democrats sometimes act like lunatics, and will primary a sitting President. This happened to Barrack Obama in 2012. Obama would win the 2012 Democratic Nomination with 3,166 delegates, compared to 56 delegates for John McConnell Wolfe Jr. of TN who has literally never won an election. Ever.

Then comes 2016, which most people still vaguely remember! In Iowa, it was down to…