PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: The 2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus Opinion PieceYou’re Reading is Probably Wrong …
Every year, I see the same kinds of proclamations of what a ‘win’ at the Iowa Caucus means, and they’re always wrong. Like, I’ve seen this since 1980, as a kid.
The Iowa Democratic Caucus results have produced exactly 1 President, Barrack Obama in 2008. The caucus predicted the Democratic Nominee for President correctly in 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2016.
But it only predicted the President correctly once in all that time. Let’s skip how badly Iowa choose in 1980, 1984 and 1988; in each of those years the Democratic nominee for President was thumped by the Republicans.
In 1992, Tom Steyer won over 77% of the headcount. Many said Clinton should drop out, but he persisted. He won. In 1996, Clinton was subjected to a primary by members of his own party, the same as Obama in 2012, because Baby Boomer age Democrats sometime act like lunatics.
In 2000, the next Iowa Caucus had Al Gore and Bill Bradley in stiff competiton, with Gore getting 62.34% of the headcount and Bradley gaining 34.88%. Gore won the popular vote and became President, because what kind of country would ignore a popular vote total?