Predicting the 2020 Democratic Primary is Stupid | Pt 2. Correlation is not Causation
Since 1980, the Iowa Caucus has correctly predicted the eventual Democratic Nominee every time except once, in 1992.
Of those Democratic Nominee predictions, 3 won the popular the vote (Al Gore, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton). The rest were crushed in electoral landslides (Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, John Kerry).
Of the 3 who won the popular vote, only 1 became President, Barrack Obama.
The year that Iowa incorrectly predicted the nominee, 1992, produced a President who had a plurality of the popular vote, but who still became President — Bill Clinton.
So, since 1980, Iowa has correctly predicted almost every Democratic Nominee, but has only correctly predicted the President once. What does all of this mean?
It means absolutely nothing. Zero. Correlation isn’t causation.